 |
| I don't think humans are supposed to look like that |
Recent Fights
Lentz: Decision wins over Tyson Griffin, Andre Winner and Rob Emerson
Lowe: Decision wins over Willamy Friere and Steve Lopez, KO loss to Melvin Guillard
Strengths
Lentz: Great top control, good at controlling fights
Lowe: Solid wrestling, has some power
Weaknesses
Lentz: Not a good finisher, boring
Lowe: Very average at almost everything
Prediction
There's a reason two guys who are a combined 6-1-1 in the UFC are on the dark portion of the undercard - neither has proven to be very exciting. Lentz really needs to take a step up in competition - of his four wins, three are against guys that are no longer in the UFC and the last is a bullshit win over Tyson Griffin. Lowe did show some ability in out-wrestling Willamy Friere, but I see Lentz controlling the pace on route to another decision win.
Johnny Hendricks (9-1, 4-1 UFC) vs TJ Waldburger (13-5, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Hendricks: Decision loss to Rick Story, TKO win over Charlie Brenneman, decision win over TJ Grant
Waldburger: Decision wins over David Mitchell and Pat Healy, submission win over Shannon Ritch
Strengths
Hendricks: Excellent wrestling, improving stand-up
Waldburger: Well rounded, coming off biggest win of his career
Weaknesses
Hendricks: Not great off his back, stand-up needs work
Waldburger: Has been KO'ed before
Prediction
Hendricks, before his fight with Rick Story, was seen as one of the more promising prospects on the UFC roster. He clearly isn't a contender yet, but he is still improving. Waldburger came in as the underdog to then undefeated David Mitchell, and managed to pull off the decision. This fight is really close, but I think Hendricks has enough skill to take Waldburger down and deliver enough ground and pound to warrant a third round TKO win.
Mario Miranda (10-2, 1-2 UFC) vs Aaron "A-Train" Simpson (7-2, 3-2 UFC
Recent Fights
Miranda: Decision loss to Demian Maia, TKO win over David Loiseau, TKO loss to Gerald Harris
Simpson: Decision loss to Mark Munoz, TKO loss to Chris Leben, decision win over Tom Lawlor
Strengths
Miranda: Solid striking skills
Simpson: Solid wrestling, power in hands
Weaknesses
Miranda: Terrible off his back
Simpson: Suspect conditioning and striking defense
Prediction
This is a win or get cut fight for both fighters - Miranda looked awful in his loss to Demian Maia, and Simpson is coming off two straight losses (and his win over Tom Lawlor is questionable. When Simpson entered the UFC, he looked like a contender - he battered Tim McKenzie and Ed Herman in his first two fights. He has not been able to take the next step though. Fortunately for him, Miranda should not be that stiff of a test for him. If Simpson uses his wrestling to take Miranda down and beat on him there, he could very easily pick up a TKO win. I think he will do exactly that, and Miranda will be sent packing.
Sean "Big Sexy" McCorkle (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs Christan Morecraft (6-1, 0-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
McCorkle: TKO loss to Stefan Struve, Submission win over Mark Hunt, TKO win over Jonathon Ivey
Morecraft: KO loss to Stefan Struve, submission win over Lee Beane, TKO win over Jason Dolloff
Strengths
McCorkle: Has power,capable wrestler
Morecraft: All wins by first round stoppage
Weaknesses
McCorkle: Weak gas tank
Morecraft: Can get caught standing
Prediction
A battle between two guys who are gigantic (McCorkle is 6'7, Morecraft is 6'8) and have recent losses to Stefan Struve. Whether either of these guys belong in the UFC is yet to be seen, and the loser of this fight will likely get cut. Morecraft looked great in the first round of his fight with Struve, hurting him badly and dominating the round. He got TKOed just 22 seconds into the second round though, and that was the longest performance of his career. There are a lot of unknowns with Morecraft that make this fight hard to pick. McCorkle easily submitted Mark Hunt in his debut, but that isn't that much of an accomplishment. He looked decent against Struve as well, but got reversed and pounded out within the first. This fight, to me, is a pick em. These guys are really similar, and either guy could easily take the fight. I'll go with Morecraft because he looked better against Struve.
Michael "Mayday" McDonald (11-1, 1-0 WEC) vs Edwin "El Feroz" Figueroa (7-0)
Recent Fights
McDonald: Submission win over Clint Godfrey, KO wins over Cole Escovedo and Manny Tapia
Figueroa: Stoppage wins over guys you've never heard of
Strengths
McDonald: Strong striking and submissions, great finisher
Figueroa: All fights have been finishes in the first two rounds
Weaknesses
McDonald: Needs time to fully develop
Figueroa: Unproven, coming in on late notice
Prediction
McDonald is one of the top bantamweight prospects in the world, and hopes to make a statement in his first UFC fight. And he should be able too over an opponent like Figueroa. There are simply too many unknowns and factors against him to pick him, so I'll go with McDonald by first round submission.
John "The Hitman" Hathaway (14-1, 4-1 UFC) vs Kris "Savage" McCray (5-2, 0-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Hathaway: Decision loss to Mike Pyle, decision win over Diego Sanchez, decision win over Paul Taylor
McCray: Submission losses to Carlos Rocha and Court McGee, submission win over Marcus Ajain
Strengths
Hathaway: Solid striking, solid grappeler, well rounded
McCray: Came into UFC with five first round wins, solid wrestling
Weaknesses
Hathaway: Lacks real power, not much of a finisher
McCray: Stand up is limited, suspect submission defense
Prediction
Before his loss to Mike Pyle, Hathaway was one of the most highly touted up-and-comers in the welterweight. McCray was a middleweight finalist on the 11th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Hathaway possess the stand up skills and wrestling defense to fend of McCray, and get back to his winning ways with a unanimous decision. McCray should start getting friendly with the smaller promotions.
Jon Madsen (7-0, 4-0 UFC) vs Mike Russow (13-1, 2-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Madsen: TKO win over Gilbert Yvel, decision wins over Karlos Vemola and Mostapha Al-Turk
Russow: KO win over Todd Duffee, decision win over Justin McCully, submission win over Braden Bice
Strengths
Madsen: Solid wrestling, able to wear guys out
Russow: Tough and durable, one punch power
Weaknesses
Madsen: Striking isn't great, not much of a finisher
Russow: Striking is pretty limited,
Prediction
Both these guys need to take a step up in competition following the biggest wins of thier respective careers. Russow's come from behind one punch KO over Todd Duffee was as awesome as it was unexpected, considering Duffee was considered one of the top prospects in the division. Madson, in finishing Gilbert Yvel, helped silence the critics that he was boring. A win for one of these guys makes them official contenders. Russow is a talented grappler, and has shown to have solid conditioning - I think he can tire Madsen out with top control grappeling on route to a decision win.
Alex "Bruce Leroy" Caceras (4-2) vs Mackens "Mack da Menace" Semerzier (5-3, 1-3 WEC)
Recent Fights
Caceras: TKO win over Jahmal McLennan, submission losses to Matt McCook and Farkhad Sharipov
Semerzier: Decision loss to Cub Swanson, submission loss to Javier Vazquez, decision loss to Deividas Taurosevicius (fuck thats a hard to spell name)
Strengths
Caceras: Decent striking, unpredictable
Semerzier: Solid submission skills
Weaknesses
Caceras: Wrestling and grappeling needs work
Semerzier: Can be controlled with wrestling
Prediction
I don't think either of these guys are all that good, but I really don't see much in Caceras. Semerzier should easily be able to take Caceras down, control him and submit him. Bruce Leroy will be one and done in the UFC after losing by first round submission.
Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia (15-6-1, 2-2 UFC) vs Chan Sung "The Korean Zombie" Jung (10-3, 0-2 WEC)
Recent Fights
Garcia: Decision win over Nam Phan, decision loss to Mark Hominick, decision win over Chan Sung Jung
Jung: KO loss to George Roop, decision loss to Leonard Garcia, submission win over Matt Jaggers
Strengths
Garcia: Good chin, has amazing ability to always have judges score fights for him (regardless of how well he does)
Jung: Solid striker, can take a fucking thrashing
Weaknesses
Garcia: Striking is wild, ground game needs work, gas tank runs out
Jung: Striking defense needs work
Prediction
A rematch of one of the (in my opinion) greatest fights of all time, Jung will get a second chance against Garcia, who many (myself included) felt he beat in their first fight. Garcia just seems to have this amazing ability to win decisions - he should have lost his fights to Nam Phan and Jung - and it could be due to the fact that he is almost always moving forward. Garcia is one of the toughest customers in the UFC, seemingly able to take shot after shot while throwing wild haymakers that miss their target by a country mile. Jung has said that he's moving away from his old style of stand right in front of the other guy and sling bombs at him after getting KO'ed in his last fight, and a more precise attack could lead to an easy win for Jung. Both these guys are known for throwing caution to the wind and slugging, but if Jung can show a little bit more patience, he should easily be able to win this fight.
Amir Sadollah (4-2, 4-2 UFC) vs DeMarques Johnson (12-8, 3-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Sadollah: Decision win over Peter Sobotta, decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim, decision win over Brad Blackburn
Johnson: Submission win over Mike Guymon, TKO loss to Matt Riddle, TKO win over Brad Blackburn
Strengths
Sadollah: Decent muay thai and jujitsu, very tough
Johnson: Good finisher, decent striking and jujitsu
Weaknesses
Sadollah: Weak wrestling, hasn't shown he's a finisher
Johnson: Wrestling is weak, conditioning has not been good
Prediction
Sadollah, the winner of the seventh season of TUF, has had a lot of trouble figuring out exactly where he belongs in the division. He's been able to pull out wins over the absolute bottom guys, but got completely dominated by Kim in their fight, and hasn't shown an ability to finish anyone at the UFC level. Johnson, a finalist on the ninth season of TUF, is kind of a finish or get finished type of fighter - in 20 career fights he's only been to decision twice, and none of his UFC fights have gone the distance. I don't think either of these guys will ever be a contender, but Sadollah should be able to overcome an early onslaught by Johnson to secure a much needed submission win in the second round.
Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy (23-8, 4-2 UFC) vs Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (8-3, 5-3 UFC)
Recent Fights
Hardy: KO loss to Carlos Condit, decision loss to Georges St. Pierre, decision win over Mike Swick
Johnson: Submission loss to Josh Koscheck, TKO wins over Yoshiyuki Yoshida and Luigi Fioravanti
Strengths
Hardy: Solid striking
Johnson: Power to spare, quick striking
Weaknesses
Hardy: Wrestling needs work
Johnson: Coming off a a 15 month layoff, ground game and conditioning were a problem
Prediction
There's no way I can pick Johnson in this fight - he's been out for way too fucking long, and even if he was healthy I think Hardy would be able to outwork and outpoint him on route to a decision. Being how it is, I see Hardy dominating a not-quite in shape Johnson on route to a second round TKO win. Could Johnson KO Hardy? Yes, but I don't see it happening.
Antonio "Lil Nog" Rogerio Nogueira (19-4, 2-1 UFC) vs Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis (8-0, 4-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Nogueira: Decision loss to Ryan Bader, decision win over Jason Brillz, TKO win over Luiz Cane
Davis: Submission win over Tim Boetsch, decision win over Rodney Wallace, submission win over Alex Gustafsson
Strengths
Nogueira: strong boxing skills, good jujitsu, can take a beating
Davis: Elite level wrestling, freakish athletic ability, very strong
Weaknesses
Nogueira: Wrestling needs work
Davis: Inexperienced, hasn't shown one punch power
Prediction
Hmmm, a fight between a guy who's an elite wrestler versus a guy where wrestling is the weakest facet of his game - how will this play out? Davis is a legit talent, and this will be his breakout fight. Filling in for an injured Tito Ortiz, Davis should easily be able to take Nogueira down, pound the shit out of him, and pick up a decision win. Nogueira is probably pissed that Ortiz got injured, considering he easily could have beaten him, and now has to go up against this beast of a man. Look out for Davis to start gunning for the title - a year from now Davis vs Jon Jones could look really interesting.
Those are the picks - you've got no reason not to watch the fights, they're free this weekend on Spike - so do it up
No comments:
Post a Comment