Constantinos Philippou (7-1) vs Nick Catone (8-2, 2-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Philippou: Decision win over Uriah Hall, TKO win over Aung La Nsang, NC with Marcus Finch
Catone: Decision win over Jesse Forbes, decision loss to Mark Munoz, submission loss to Tim Creuder
Strengths
Philippou: Good hands, solid wrestling, good size
Catone: Jujitsu and wrestling, well rounded
Weaknesses
Philippou: Taking a big step up, fighting on short notice
Catone: Has no area in which he is amazing, hasn't beaten any really tough competition
Prediction
Catone was originally set to fight to Dan Miller, but with Miller now filling in for Yoshihiro Akiyama, Catone will take on UFC newcomer Philippou. Philippou was actually on the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter, but was submitted in the round to get into the house. Philippou will be facing the toughest test of his career in Catone, but he could pull out the win. Catone is one of the low level guys in the division, and Philippou has the hands to be able to beat Catone. If Catone can take him down, there's a good chance for a submission. A close fight, but I'll take the octagon veteran Catone by submission in the second.
Raphael Assuncao (16-3. 3-2 WEC) vs Erik "New Breed" Koch (11-1, 3-1 WEC)
Recent Fights
Assuncao: Decision win over LC Davis, decision loss to Diego Nunes, submission loss to Urijah Faber
Koch: TKO win over Francisco Rivera, submission win over Bendy Casimir, decision loss to Chad Mendes
Strengths
Assuncao: Great ground game, tons of experience
Koch: Well rounded, gets better every fight, still very young
Weaknesses
Assuncao: Striking needs to get better
Koch: Still needs time to grow, wrestling needs work
Prediction
Koch is a serious prospect, and one day he could be among the elite in the division. He isn't at the point yet though, and Assuncao is simply to skilled and too experienced for Koch. I see Koch putting up a good fight before getting submitted in the second round.
Joe Benavidez (13-2, 5-2 WEC) vs Ian "The Barn Owl" Loveland (14-7, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Benavidez: Submission win over Wagnney Fabiano, decision loss to Dominick Cruz, submission win over Miguel Torres
Loveland: Decision win over Tyler Toner, KO wins over Xavier Desrochers and Douglas Evans
Strengths
Benavidez: Very powerful, excellent grappler, has beaten some of the best in the division
Loveland: Good finisher, has won seven straight fights
Weaknesses
Benavidez: Small guy (just 5'4), standup is limited
Loveland: Has several losses by submission,
Prediction
Benavidez is kind of like the Jon Fitch of the bantamweight division - clearly one of the best in the division, but has lost both his bids for the title and didn't look good in either of them. The difference is that Benavidez is capable of finishing fights, and it's what I see him doing here. Loveland is a step back for Benavidez after taking on Fabiano, and he should be facing a tougher test. I see Benavidez submitting Loveland with a guillotine choke in the first round, and will hopefully get on the PPV broadcast.
Eliot "The Fire" Marshall (10-2, 3-1 UFC) vs Luiz "Banha" Cane (10-3, 3-3 UFC)
Recent Fights
Marshall: Submission win over Chris McNally, decision wins over Josh Haynes and Adriano Camolese.
Cane: TKO losses to Cyrille Diabate and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, decision win over Steve Cantwell
Strengths
Marshall: Solid wrestling and top control game
Cane: Excellent muay thai skills
Weaknesses
Marshall: Not great at anything, kind of boring
Cane: Striking defense is very suspect, tends to wilt under pressure
Prediction
Don't be fooled by Marshall's resume: two of those wins were over guys that got cut right after, and he got cut right after losing to Vlad Matyushenko. Cane hasn't even been in the octagon for a five minutes over his last two fights, getting KO'ed in both contests. Before those losses, Cane was a highly touted prospect though, and if he can show some of the muay thai skills he displayed earlier in his UFC career against Marshall, than he should be able to take it. If not, I doubt he'll stay in the UFC. I'm still picking Cane, but Marshall could pull out the win.
Mike "Quicksand" Pyle (20-7-1, 3-2 UFC) vs Ricardo "Cachorrao" Almeida (13-4, 6-4 UFC)
Recent Fights
Pyle: Decision win over John Hathaway, submission win over Jesse Lennox, TKO loss to Jake Ellenberger
Almeida: Decision win over TJ Grant, submission loss to Matt Hughes, submission win over Matt Brown
Strengths
Pyle: Great submissions, solid wrestling
Almeida: One of the best jujitsu guys in the UFC, big for a welterweight
Weaknesses
Pyle: Wilts under pressure, standup is limited
Almeida: Striking needs work, struggles when he can't take guys down
Prediction
Almeida and Pyle are similar fighters - both guys would rather go for submissions than keep the fight standing, but I think this fight will be decided on the feet. Pyle is coming off one of the biggest wins of his career, which can't be said about Almeida, who still has that shocking choke-out loss to Matt Hughes in recent memory. I think Pyle continues his winning ways, keeping the fight standing and using his better (though still not good) striking to outpoint Almeida on route to a decision win.
Anthony Njokuani (13-4, 4-3 WEC) vs Edson Barboza (7-0, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Njokuani: TKO win over Edward Faaloloto, TKO loss to Maciej Jewtuszko, submission loss to Shane Roller
Barboza: TKO wins over Mike Lullo, Marcelo Giudici, and Jose Figueroa
Strengths
Njokuani: Solid stand up, solid finisher
Barboza: Leg kicks, excellent finisher
Weaknesses
Njokuani: Very limited on the ground
Barboza: Lack of experience
Prediction
Both these guys are great standing - Njokuani is excellent at mixing up his muay thai, and Barboza has devastating leg kicks. On the ground, it's a different story. Njokuani has openly said that he doesn't like ground fighting, and considering how bad he is on the ground it makes sense why he doesn't want to go there. Haven't seen Barboza on the ground yet, but it may be the easiest way for him to dispatch Njokuani in this fight. I think Barboza will try to take Njokuani down, and once he's there it should not be hard to tap him out. If the fight stays standing, it's much closer, but Barboza could still win there. He simply has more ways to win, and that's why my pick is Barboza vie 1st round submission.
Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino (16-5, 7-4 UFC) vs Gleison Tibau (21-7, 7-5 UFC)
Recent Fights
Pellegrino: Decision loss to George Sotiropoulous, submission win over Fabricio Camoes, decision win over Josh Neer
Tibau: Decision loss to Jim Miller, TKO win over Caol Uno, decision win over Josh Neer
Strengths
Pellegrino: Excellent top game, solid submission skills, good in scrambles
Tibau: Very big for a lightweight, strong submission skills, power in hands
Weaknesses
Pellegrino: Not great standing, not great of his back
Tibau: Can be controlled on the ground, not great of his back
Prediction
Pellegrino and Tibau are in pretty similar situations in the UFC: Good enough to beat most guys in the division, but not good enough to take it to the next level. Both these guys are also coming off losses, and while neither is in danger of getting cut, another loss puts them closer. Tibau is very strong, but I think Pellegrino will be able to take him down and control him on route to a close decision win.
Kamal "Prince of Persia" Shalorus (7-0-2, 3-0-1 WEC) vs Jim Miller (19-2, 8-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
Shalorus: Decision win over Bart Palaszewski, draw with Jamie Varner, decision win over Dave Jansen
Miller: Submission win over Charles Oliveira, decision wins over Gleison Tibau and Mark Bocek.
Strengths
Shalorus: Judo skills, power in strikes
Miller: Excellent wrestling and submissions, very tough to finish, excellent cardio
Weaknesses
Shalorus: Standup needs work, getting on in age, conditioning is suspect
Miller: Stand up needs work, can be out-wrestled
Prediction
Miller has emerged as one of the top contenders at lightweight, coming off six straight wins highlighted by his 1st round kneebar of Oliveira. Shalorus was being groomed for a potential title shot in the WEC, but his draw with Jamie Varner should be a loss, and his striking, while powerful, isn't technical. Shalorus isn't a top contender in the UFC, Miller might be. My pick is Miller by submission in the third round, after Shalorus has gassed out.
Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub (7-1, 3-1 UFC) vs Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (27-8-2, 4-4 UFC)
Recent Fights
Schaub: Decision win over Gabriel Gonzaga. KO wins over Chris Tuchscherer and Chase Gormley
Filipovic: KO loss to Frank Mir, submission win over Pat Barry, TKO win over Anthony Perosh
Strengths
Schaub: Power in hands, explosive takedowns
Filipovic: Lethal kicks, intimidation factor
Weaknesses
Schaub: Still new to game
Filipovic: Ground game has always been an issue, skills are not what they used to be
Prediction
Cro Cop isn't the world beater he was in Pride. His days as a top heavyweight have passed him, but Schaub's days could be right in front of him. Schaub, who was a finalist on the tenth season of the Ultimate Fighter, is a legit prospect that could go far in the UFC. I think this will be the fight Schaub makes his name off of, submitting Cro Cop in the second round after beating him standing.
Nate "The Great" Marquardt (30-10-2, 9-4 UFC) vs Dan Miller (13-4, 5-3 UFC)
Recent Fights
Marquardt: Decision loss to Yushin Okami, TKO win over Rousamir Palhares, decision loss to Chael Sonnen
Miller: Decision win over Joe Doerkson, submission win over John Salter, decision loss to Michael Bisping
Strengths
Marquardt: Great all around game, killer instinct
Miller: Solid submission skills, solid wrestling, has never been finished
Weaknesses
Marquardt: Tends to choke in big fights, has problems with wrestlers
Miller: Limited stand-up skills
Prediction
Marquardt is one of the top guys in the middleweight division, but the last two times he's been in a top contender fight, he's choked and looked bad. This is not one of those fights. Miller steps up from the undercard on short notice, with Yoshihiro Akiyama bowing out of his fight due to the earthquake and tsunami in his home of Japan. Miller simply can't hang with Marquardt standing, and I doubt he will be able to get Marquardt to the ground. Miller is tough, but Marquardt is gonna beat him up on route to a decision win.
Urijah "The California Kid" Faber (24-4, 9-3 WEC) vs Eddie Wineland (18-6-1, 5-2 WEC)
Recent Fights
Faber: Submission win over Takeya Mizugaki, decision loss to Jose Aldo, submission win over Raphael Assuncao
Wineland: KO wins over Ken Stone and Will Campuzano, decision win over George Roop
Strengths
Faber: Great grappler, very strong, varied striking, has fought the best in the world
Wineland: Solid boxing, lots of experience
Weaknesses
Faber: Striking isn't as polished as it could be, tends to be reckless
Wineland: Most losses by submission, lacks big name wins
Prediction
Two former WEC champs make their UFC debuts, but it's pretty obvious who the favorite is. Faber was the WEC's biggest star, and for good reason - he was a top 5 featherweight, and if he wins this fight, he will likely go opposite bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz on the 14th season of TUF (which will feature bantamweights and featherweights). Wineland is a solid fighter, as his four straight wins proves, but Faber is a potential champion. Faber should not have a problem taking Wineland down, and can use his crippling chokes to get a tapout from Wineland in the second.
Lightweight Championship: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (19-4, 3-2 UFC) vs Jon "Bones" Jones (12-1, 6-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
Rua: KO win over Lyoto Machida, decision loss to Lyoto Machida, KO win over Chuck Liddell
Jones: Submission win over Ryan Bader, TKO wins over Brandon Vera and Vlad Matyushenko
Strengths
Rua: Elite level striking, great jujitsu, very experienced
Jones: Very explosive, unorthodox striking, great wrestling
Weaknesses
Rua: Coming off injury, not far removed from weak performances against Mark Coleman and Forrest Griffin
Jones: Has not fought at the very top level, still unknowns in his game
Prediction
One word describes Jones rise in the division: meteoric. He's only been fighting for three years, but he's blown through every opponent put in front of him (the DQ loss to Matt Hamill should have been a TKO win, but the elbows he was using were deemed illegal). On the other hand, Shogun is about as experienced as you can get. He's fought the best in the division, holding wins over Evangelista Santos, Rampage Jackson, Lil' Nog, Alistair Overeem x2, Cyrille Diabate and Kevin Randelman, with only Nogueira of those listed not getting finished. Many thought he won his first fight with Machida, and his second fight was about as decisive as it can get. He is coming of almost a year of inactivity though, and that's the second major break he's taken in the last four years. This fight could go either way: No one has come close to stopping Jones, but Jones hasn't faced anyone near the level of Shogun. My pick is Jon Jones by unanimous decision, in a fight where Shogun doesn't look 100%. I don't know if Shogun will be at full health, and he'll need to be to defend against Jones. The belt hasn't been successfully defended since Rampage Jackson beat Dan Henderson, and I don't think it will happen on Saturday.
Those are the fights. As per usual the matchmaker will be up after I watch at least most of the fights.
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