Monday, March 21, 2011

Armchair Matchmaker: UFC 128

I considered not doing a matchmaker post, but (as you can pretty obviously tell) I ended up doing one anyways.  Also, I just realized that Cage Potato has the exact same headline as I do. Difference, mines more in depth and theres will get like 100 times the amount of hits. Now, onto the picks

Cut List
Eliot Marshall, Mirko Cro Cop (well, he should retire)

Jon Jones vs Rashad Evans
It's not really the fight I want, but it's the fight that makes the most sense right now - all the other contenders either need to win a few more fights or are tied up in other matches. If Randy Couture somehow beats Lyoto Machida at UFC 129, I would rather have him fight for the title instead of Evans. I don't think Couture will win though, so let Evans have the first crack at it.

Shogun Rua vs Rich Franklin
Both guys are former champions. Both guys are coming off losses. Both guys are primarily known for their stand-up. The timing on the fight makes sense, it's one the UFC can sell, and it's a fight Shogun should be able to win. Not the most exciting match up, but one that makes sense from the UFC's perspective.

Rest of the fights after the jump
Urijah Faber vs Dominick Cruz  2 (for the bantamweight title)
Faber called him out, and it makes too much sense not to happen - Faber is by far the most popular fighter the UFC has in the sub-155 weight classes, he holds a win over the champ, and he's coming off back to back wins over two very tough guys. These guys will also likely be the coaches for the 14th season of TUF, which will feature featherweights and bantamweights. Consider this one a lock.

Eddie Wineland vs Ian Loveland
Both these guys did better than most expected them too, but came out with losses. Wineland managed to stuff most of Faber's takedowns, but failed to do anything else in the fight. I only saw the last minute of Loveland's battle with Joe Benavidez, but the fact that he managed to make it to a decision is impressive enough. Both guys need to bounce back, and this fight provides that.

Jim Miller vs the winner of Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller
The lightweight division is kinda fucked up. Miller has won seven straight, but none of those wins have been over guys that are legit contenders. He really shouldn't wait out a title shot (he would have to wait until after the Edgar/Maynard rematch, and then wait for the winner of the Pettis/Guida fight to challenge. That's at least a year long layoff, which is way too long. Miller should be able to beat either Guillard or Roller, and it would cement his status as the number one contender.

Kamal Shalorus vs Anthony Njokuani
A win or get cut fight for both fighters, this is really Shalorus' fight to lose. If Shalorus would just use his elite wrestling skills, he could be far more successful. Unfortunatly, he seems willing to be a powerful, yet stiff striker. If this fight stays standing, Njokuani is more than capable of lighting him up like Jim Miller did. If Shalorus uses his wrestling, he can likely control Njokuani. Let's see what happens in the cage.

Nate Marquardt vs Michael Bisping
Marquardt looked a little hesitant to pull the trigger against Dan Miller, but still managed to win a clear decision. I want to see the Marquardt we used to see against Bisping though, as he deserves to get his head beat like a bongo drum. Hopefully Marquardt will remember how to knock someone out if this fight gets made.

Dan Miller vs Nick Catone
Originally scheduled before Miller stepped up to fight Marquardt, this fight makes sense to be rescheduled. Miller needs to bounce back, and Catone needs to impress. Let's see which one of the two can do what they need to do.

Brendan Schaub vs the winner of Jon Madsen v Mike Russow
Schaub is ready for a step up, but he isn't quite at the very top yet. A fight against the winner of the upcoming Madsen/Russow fight creates another legit contender in the division.

Luiz Cane vs Ryan Bader
Bader still doesn't have a fight lined up after getting choked out by Jon Jones, and a bounce back fight against Cane makes sense. Does Cane really stand a chance at winning? Probably not, but he ain't a contender anyways.

Edson Barboza vs Danny Castillo
Two guys who like to strike fighting each other? Sounds good to me.

Mike Pyle vs the winner of Anthony Johnson v Dan Hardy
Pyle has now put three straight wins together, and it's time for him to take a step up in competition. Johnson and Hardy are both looking to rebound at the upcoming card, and the winner will need a logical next step up afterwards. Pyle has proven that he can be tough test for anyone, and has started to shed his image as a guy who wilts under pressure. Either Johnson or Hardy would try to put thier mitts on Pyle's face, and it would be a chance for Pyle to prove that he can handle strong strikers too. If Pyle wins this, he could be a fight away from a title shot.

Ricardo Almieda vs Martin Kampmann
As suggested in the last matchmaker, Kampmann needs to bounce back, and a fight against Almieda does just that. A fight between these two guys is a far better match up than Almieda vs Pyle was, and one that should result in a far more entertaining fight. The loser of this fight should probably worry about his job.

Gleison Tibau vs the winner of Yves Edwards v Sam Stout
Tibau didn't really move up in the division after taking a very close decision over Kurt Pellegrino. A fight against a guy like Yves Edwards or Sam Stout would be like a do-over for Tibau - another chance against a middling talent to move up to contendership. Edwards and Stout are far better style matchups than Pellegrino was, and should result in a much better fight.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Pellegrino lost a very close decision to Gleison Tibau last weekend, and he won't get a bounce back fight in Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos hasn't fought in nearly a year after losing to Guida due to injury. Both these guys are middle of the pack fighter, and just like his fight against Tibau, this fight is a chance for one of them to move up the ladder. The fight could end up being pretty similar to Pellegrino v Tibau, which isn't neccesarily a good thing considering that fight was a snoozer, but it's a fight that makes sense that can be put on a random undercard.

Joe Benavidez vs Brian Bowles
Benavidez and Bowles are both top contenders at bantamweight - may as well fight each other. If Bowles wins, he almost certainly gets a title shot. Benavidez will probably need one more win after this (given his two losses to the current champ) but he has to take fights against the top guys - once you reach the very top, you can't go back to fighting cans.

Constantinos Phillipou vs Dave Branch
I didn't make a fight for Branch after the last card, so I'll give him one now. Loser of this fight gets cut, winner probably gets cut in a year. Why not make this fight.

Eric Koch vs Tie Quan Zhang
Two prospects coming off quick wins, this fight pushes one into contendership, while the loser has to go back and rebuild his hype. Koch has faced a higher level of competition, and doesn't have a questionable loss to Danny Downes likes Zhang does, but Koch probably wants to fight again soon and Zhang is an available fighter that would provide a decent test.

Raphael Assuncao vs Mike Brown
Both these guys have fallen on rough times. Both guys have lost three of thier last four, and before that both guys were considered at the top of the division. This is a win or get cut kind of match between two guys that need to prove they still have what it takes to fight at the highest level.

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