John " The Bull" Makdessi (8-0, 1-0 UFC) vs Kyle Watson (13-6-1, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Makdessi: Decision wins over Pat Audinwood and Bendy Casimir, TKO win over Lindsey Hawkes
Watson: Decision win over Sako Chivitchyan, submission win over Steve Reyna, TKO win over Josh Bernal
Strengths
Makdessi: Has power in hands, solid striker
Watson: Well rounded, good finisher
Weaknesses
Makdessi: Not as experienced
Watson: Striking needs work
Prediction
Makdessi is a solid prospect, though he is gone to back to back decisions after winning his first six fights by knockout. Watson is a TUF alum that won his first UFC fight, but likely isn't more than a low level gatekeeper. Makdessi should be able to take this fight, and Watson has been stopped before so I think the Canadian can pick up a TKO win and stay undefeated.
Jason "The Athlete" Macdonald (24-14, 5-6 UFC) vs Ryan Jensen (15-7, 2-5 UFC)
Recent Fights
Macdonald: TKO (Injury) loss to John Salter, decision win over Matt Horwich, submission win over Vernon White
Jensen: Submission loss to Court McGee, submission win over Jesse Forbes, TKO loss to Mark Munoz
Strengths
Macdonald: Solid grappler and wrestler
Jensen: Never been to decision, decent grappler, kinda looks like Dexter
Weaknesses
Macdonald: Can be outwrestled, stand up is mediocre
Jensen: Submission defense is very suspect
Prediction
Neither of these guys have impressive UFC records, though Macdonald has had significantly more success. Macdonald was at one time considered one of the best middleweights in the UFC, though that was at a point that the middleweight was very weak. That being said, Macdonald is more than capable of taking care of Jensen, and should be able to submit him win the second round with a rear naked choke.
Ivan "The Pride of El Salvador" Menjivar (21-8, 0-1 UFCvs Charlie Valencia (12-6, 5-4 WEC)
Recent Fights
Menjivar: Decision loss to Brad Pickett, submission win over Aaron Simpson, decision loss to Bart Palaszewski
Valencia: Submission loss to Miguel Torres, decision wins over Akitoshi Tamura and Coty Wheeler
Strengths
Menjivar: Lots of experience, solid submissions
Valencia: Decent conditioning, well rounded
Weaknesses
Menjivar: Wrestling isn't great, neither is his striking
Valencia: Not particularly good at anything, habit of getting finished
Prediction
This is a match between two guys who have been around for a while, and haven't shown any reason to think either one will be any more than a low level gatekeeper. Menjivar was competitive in his loss to Brad Pickett, and has wins over better fighters. I see Menjivar pushing the fight everywhere, scoring points on route to a decision win.
Claude "The Prince" Patrick (13-1, 2-0 UFC) vs Daniel "Ninja" Roberts (12-1, 3-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
Patrick: Decision win over James Wilks, submission wins over Ricardo Funch and Matt MacGrath
Roberts: Submission wins over Greg Soto and Michael Guymon, decision win over Forrest Petz
Strengths
Patrick: Solid wrestling and submissions
Roberts: Slick ground game
Weaknesses
Patrick: Needs more experience against UFC caliber fighters
Roberts: Striking needs work
Prediction
Both these guys have become solid prospects in the welterweight division - both are great submission artists that can take guys down. What often happens when two strong grapplers meet is a standup fight, and that's a fight that has to favor Patrick. Roberts has shown some flashiness on the fight, but it's his submissions that get the finishes. I see Patrick negating Roberts grappling and out scoring him on the feet on route to a decision victory.
Pablo "The Scarecrow" Garza (10-1, 1-0 UFC) vs Yves "Tiger" Jabouin (15-6, 1-2 WEC)
Recent Fights
Garza: KO win over Fredson Paixao, submission loss to Tiequan Zhang, TKO win over Aaron Steele
Jabouin: Decision win over Brandon Visher, TKO loss to Mark Hominick, decision loss to Raphael Assuncao
Strengths
Garza: KO power, tall for a featherweight
Jabouin: Strong striking skills
Weaknesses
Garza: Wrestling needs work
Jabouin: Ground game needs work
Prediction
A battle between two talented strikers? Sounds good to me. Pablo Garza, who was on the Ultimate Fighter 12 (where he was decisioned by Michael Johnson) is coming off a highlight reel flying knee KO win, but hasn't shown a whole lot in his UFC and WEC fights. Yves Jabouin, a former Canadian Karate champ, has some impressive striking as well, but his ground game was shown to be lacking in his loss to Mark Hominick. Jabouin may not be the one coming off the highlight reel finish, but I believe his experience and striking will guide him to a decision victory.
Jake "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger (23-5, 3-1 UFC) vs Sean "Pimp Daddy" Pierson (11-4, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Ellenberger: Decision win over Carlos Rocha, TKO wins over John Howard and Mike Pyle
Pierson: Decision win over Matt Riddle, TKO wins over Ricky Goodall and Fabio Holanda
Strengths
Ellenberger: Strong wrestling, vicious ground and pound, power in hands
Pierson: Strong striking, good in scrambles
Weaknesses
Ellenberger: Striking needs to be more technical
Pierson: Has been finished, no big name wins
Prediction
With Brian Foster out with a brain hemorrhage, Ellenberger steps up to take on Pierson, and this fight gets a whole lot more interesting. Ellenberger has been impressive in all his UFC fights, barely losing to contender Carlos Condit in his debut. Pierson stepped up on short notice, and then proceeded to demolish Matt Riddle in his debut. Pierson's debut was solid, but he hasn't faced anyone near the level of Ellenberger in his career. Ellenberger should be able to take Pierson down and pound out a TKO victory in the second round.
Nate Diaz (13-6, 8-4 UFC vs Rory MacDonald (10-1, 1-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
Diaz: Decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim, submission win over Marcus Davis, TKO win over Rory Markham
MacDonald: TKO loss to Carlos Condit, submission win over Mike Guymon, KO win over Nick Hinchliffe
Strengths
Diaz: Solid submissions and striking
MacDonald: All wins by submission, solid striking and grappling, Weaknesses
Diaz: Wrestling needs a lot of work
MacDonald: Still very young, wrestling needs work
Prediction
MacDonald is one of the top prospects in the welterweight division. Only 21, he is one of the new breed of fighters that has always trained in all facets of MMA instead of starting in one discipline and learning the others after. He was able to submit a tough veteran (Mike Guymon) in his debut, and nearly beat Carlos Condit before succumbing to elbow strikes at the very end of the third (had Condit not finished the fight, MacDonald likely would have won a decision). Diaz, younger brother of Strikeforce champ Nick Diaz, and winner of the fifth season of the Ultimate Fighter, is 2-1 since moving up to welterweight, and as shown in his last fight, wrestling is still his biggest weakness. If Diaz's wrestling improved, then he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place, and stands a good chance at winning. If it hasn't, MacDonald should be able to take Diaz down and control him. I'll put my money on the latter, and pick MacDonald by decision.
Mark Bocek (9-3, 5-3 UFC) vs Benson "Smooth" Henderson (12-2, 5-1 WEC)
Recent Fights
Bocek: Submission win over Dustin Hazelett, decision loss to Jim Miller, submission win over Joe Brammer
Henderson: Decision loss to Anthony Pettis, submission wins over Donald Cerrone and Jamie Varner
Strengths
Bocek: Solid submissions
Henderson: Solid wrestling, well rounded
Weaknesses
Bocek: Striking isn't great
Henderson: Striking also isn't great
Prediction
This is a really interesting match up between two guys that could become contenders in the lightweight division. Bocek, who has won four of his last five fights by submission, with three of those wins in the first round. Henderson is a former WEC lightweight champ, losing his belt in a close fight with Anthony Pettis, who is fighting Clay Guida for a title shot this summer. Both these guys haven't beaten any of the best guys in the division, but they've put up good showings, and with improvement could move into the upper echelon of the division. As for the fight, when two great grapplers meet the fight often turns in to a striking match, and that's where I feel Henderson will win the fight. He's by no means a great striker, but Henderson is more than capable of outstriking Bocek on route to a decision win.
Jason "The Hitman" Brillz (18-3-1, 3-2 UFC) vs Vlad "The Janitor" Matyushenko (25-5, 6-3 UFC)
Recent Fights
Brillz: Decision loss to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, decision win over Eric Schaefer, decision loss to Eliot Marshall
Matyushenko: TKO win over Alexandre Ferreira, TKO loss to Jon Jones, decision win over Eliot Marshall
Strengths
Brillz: Strong wrestling, solid conditioning
Matyushenko: Very experienced, solid wrestling and conditioning
Weaknesses
Brillz: Not a great finisher, standup is limited
Matyushenko: Not a great finisher, standup is limited
Prediction
This is a fight between two guys with very similar styles that are close to each other in the division. Brillz likely gained respect in his very close loss to Lil' Nogueira, and has shown that he can work a top control special just fine. Matyushenko, who fought for the light heavyweight title against Tito Ortiz back in 2001, is coming off his first stoppage win in two and a half years, and has proven to be a tough test for anyone. Both these guys a really similar, and it makes the fight really hard to pick. The winner of the fight will ultimatly be who can take who down, and I think Brillz shown better wrestling, and thus he is my pick to win a very close decision.
Randy "The Natural" Couture (19-10, 16-7 UFC) vs Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (16-2, 8-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Couture: Submission wins over James Toney and Mark Coleman, decision win over Brandon Vera
Machida: Decision loss to Rampage Jackson, TKO loss to Shogun Rua, decision win over Shogun Rua
Strengths
Couture: Great game-planner, solid wrestling, about as experienced as you can get
Machida: Well rounded, has KO power, solid submissions
Weaknesses
Couture: Stand-up is mediocre, and his chin has seen better days, old
Machida: Hasn't looked good in his last two fights
Prediction
This is a pretty interesting match up between former champs Couture and Machida. Couture, one of only two multi-weight title winners, and a UFC Hall of Famer, Couture continues to fight at the age of 47, though he is no longer one of the top guys in the division. Machida has lost a lot of they hype he built going 15-0 on route to the light heavyweight title. In his last three fights he hasn't looked like the same fighter he was when KO'ed Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans. That being said, Machida is a solid favorite over Couture. Couture has looked mediocre at best on the feet recently, and hasn't fought anyone near contender status since his loss to Minotauro Nogueira in mid-2009. If the perennial underdog Couture manages to pull of yet another upset, he could very well earn one last chance at a title. But Machida should be victorious, and if he comes in looking good I could see a KO win in the second round.
Featherweight Champion Jose "Scarface" Aldo (18-1, 8-0 WEC) vs Mark "The Machine" Hominick (20-8, 3-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Aldo: KO win over Manny Gamburyan, decision win over Urijah Faber, TKO win over Mike Brown
Hominick: TKO win over George Roop, decision win over Leonard Garcia, TKO win over Yves Jabouin
Strengths
Aldo: Devastating striking
Hominick: Solid striking and submissions, good in scrambles, very experienced
Weaknesses
Aldo: Haven't seen much of his ground game
Hominick: Wrestling needs work, tends to get finished in losses
Prediction
Aldo, the former WEC featherweight champ, makes his UFC debut, and looks to add Hominick to his list of victims. Hominick, a wily, and well rounded, veteran looks to take the title in front of his native crowd. It may seem odd that Aldo is the champ even though he's never fought in the UFC, but trust me - he's deserving of the title. No one came close to beating Aldo in the WEC, and I don't see Hominick being the guy that does it. Better fighters than Hominick have tried to beat Aldo, and they failed. I see Aldo beating up on Hominick until an eventual stoppage in the third round.
Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre (21-2, 15-2 UFC) vs Jake Shields (26-4-1, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
St. Pierre: Decision wins over Josh Koscheck, Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves
Shields: Decision wins over Martin Kampmann, Dan Henderson and Jason Miller
Strengths
St. Pierre: Literally everything - there is no glaring weakness in his game
Shields: Very good submissions, solid wrestling, on 15 fight winning streak
Weaknesses
St. Pierre: Could use a finish victory
Shields: Striking needs work, lots of decisions on record
Prediction
At this point in his career, nobody at welterweight will be anything but a major underdog to St. Pierre. He's avenged both losses, and dominated every other top fighter in his current reign as champ. The days of holding his loss to Matt Serra are long gone - St. Pierre would be a favorite over most middleweights now. Shields, a former Strikeforce middleweight champ, did not look that good in his debut, but had been one of the best fighters not in the UFC prior to that. Shields only shot at winning would be taking St. Pierre down and submitting him, but I don't think Shields can take him down, and even if he did I doubt he would be able to submit St. Pierre. I see a fight very similar to St. Pierre v Koscheck 2 - St. Pierre clearly dominating Shields standing, and not letting the fight go to the ground. Hopefully St. Pierre will actually pull the trigger and finish Shields though.
No comments:
Post a Comment