Karl's Picks - UFC 127

It's time for another installment of Karl's Picks, and this time were looking at the UFC 127 card taking place in the land Down Under. BJ Penn continues his run at welterweight and could get another title shot if he can get past perennial #2 welterweight Jon "The Blanket" Fitch. Rumor is that Paul Hogan, a bunch of wallabies, and the ghost of Steve Irwin will be sitting cage side. Don't worry Steve, the sting rays can't hurt you there (unless..... WE ALL NEED TO START WORRYING ABOUT STING RAYS THAT CAN CROSS LAND! GATHER ARMS AND WE'LL SHOW THESE MOTHERFUCKING RAYS TO STAY IN THE GODDAMN OCEAN!). Yeah, I went with a cheap Steve Irwin joke. Deal with it.

Jason "The Littlest Hobo" Reinhardt (20-1) vs Tie Quan Zhang (12-1)
Zhang makes his UFC debut and Reinhardt returns in our first fight of the night. Reinhardt has one of the most impressive records in MMA, but there's a dirty secret behind it: all of his opponents BLOW. He's one of the most notorious can smashers in the sport. His 20 wins come against competition that is a combined 56-87, with only three of them having winning records (take out those three, and his competition drops to 18-68). His loss comes in his only other appearance in the octagon, when Joe Lauzon easily defeated him in just over a minute. Along with this, he's tiny. If other fighters are like regular size chocolate bars, he'd be one of those little ones you hand out at Halloween. While Zhang comes in off a loss, he's still one of the better featherweight prospects out there. Zhang split his two WEC appearances, submitting Pablo Garza with a guillotine in the first and then losing to Danny Downes via decision. His wrestling needs work, as shown in the loss to Downes, but he should be able to overpower Reinhardt, either winning by TKO or submission in the first. Reinhardt can then move down to his natural weight class of 95 pounds.

Reinhardt isn't getting too much love from me, if you couldn't tell already.
Mark Hunt (5-7) vs Chris Tuchscherer (21-3)
Two big heavyweights duke it out to see who gets to stay in the octagon. How Hunt is still in the UFC I'll never know, but then again, Tuchscherer isn't too great either. Hunt has lost his last six fights, a streak that goes back almost five years, though that streak does include notable names like Josh Barnett, Fedor Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, Melvin Manhoef and Gegard Mousasi. His last, and only, fight in the UFC was a quick submission loss to Sean McCorkle. Tuchscherer, a training partner of Brock Lesnar, has gone 1-2 inside the octagon, losing in the first round to Gabriel Gonzaga (by vicious dick-kick) and Brendan Schaub (by vicious face-punch) with a decision win over Tim Hague in between them. He also fought in the wonderous YAMMA tournament, losing in the finals to Travis Wiuff. I don't think either of these fighters should be in the UFC, but I do think that Tuchscherer can exploit Hunt's extremely weak ground game on route to a submission win.

Curt Warburton (6-2) vs Maciej Jewtuszko (8-0)
Jewtuszko and Warburton meet on the undercard to see who belongs in the UFC. Warburton lost his only UFC fight so far, losing by decision to Spencer Fisher at UFC 120. Jewtuszko makes his UFC debut after going 1-0 in the WEC with a first round TKO of Anthony Njokuani. Jewtuszko displayed some impressive striking against Njokuani, who is a solid striker himself, but remains fairly unknown. I know even less about Warburton, so I don't really know who to pick in this fight. I'll go with Jewtuszko, but it's more of a coin flip than anything.

Nick Ring (10-0) vs Riki Fukuda (17-4)
Ring finally makes his UFC debut, and faces a firm test in former DEEP middleweight champ Fukuda. Ring was a cast member on the 11th season of the Ultimate Fighter, where he won a decision over eventual winner Court McGee but had to drop out due to injury. Ring had surgery following the show, and will now make his debut, his first fight since late 2009. Fukuda also makes his UFC debut, and is riding a seven fight win streak, with the biggest win in that streak being a decision win over Murilio "Ninja" Rua, the older brother of UFC light heavyweight champ Shogun Rua. Ring is an impressive prospect, but he could have serious rust coming in to this fight, and Fukuda is no pushover. I'm picking Fukuda to win a close decision, with ring rust proving to be too big a factor for Ring to overcome.

Anthony Perosh (10-6) vs Tom Blackledge (10-6)
Perosh gets another chance after taking on Cro Cop on short notice on the last Aussie card, and takes on Wolfslair product Blackledge. Perosh has fought three times in the UFC, losing all three of those bouts to Jeff Monson, Christian Wellisch and the above mentioned fight with Cro Cop. This will mark Perosh's first fight at 205 in the Octagon. Blackledge makes his UFC debut coming off two straight wins, and has never been to decision in his career. I'm not sold on either of these guys - Perosh couldn't hang in the heavyweight division and the light heavy division isn't any easier, and Blackledge has never shown consistency. I'm picking Blackledge, but no matter who wins I would be suprised to see them still under contract a year from now.

Alexander Gustafsson (10-1) vs James Te Huna (12-4)
This fight represents a clash of styles: Gustafsson's striking versus Te Huna's takedown-based attack. Gustaffson has gone 2-1 in the UFC so far, knocking out Jared Hamman in less than a minute in his debut, then losing to super prospect Phil Davis by submission, followed by a submission of his own over veteran Cyrille Diabate. Te Huna won his first, and only (so far), fight in the UFC, scoring a TKO win over Igor Pokrajic at the last Australia show. Gustafsson is a legit prospect, and I think Te Huna only got a chance because he's Australian. That, coupled with the rust Te Huna must have from not fighting in a year should combine in a finish for Gustafsson, and a fight on the main card in his next bout.

Spencer Fisher (24-6) vs Ross Pearson (11-4)
How this is on the undercard but Camozzi/Noke isn't is well beyond me. Fisher is one of the longest serving lightweight gatekeepers, holding a 9-5 record and coming of a decision win over Curt Warburton. Previous to that win he had lost two straight to Joe Stevenson (by submission) and Dennis Siver (by decision). He actually submitted welterweight contender Thiago Alves in his first UFC fight, though I doubt that if they fought again it would have the same result. Pearson is the lightweight winner of the 9th season of the Ultimate Fighter, and has gone 3-1 in the UFC so far. He most recently was submitted by Cole Miller after winning three straight over Andre Winner, Aaron Riley and Dennis Siver. Both of these fighters have shown capable standup, while Fisher has shown a better ground game and Pearson has looked better in the clinch. This is a close fight, Fisher has never been that good, and Pearson has shown a lot of improvement since winning the reality show (though his fight with Miller was a definite step back). I think Pearson can keep the fight on the feet against Fisher, and batter him on route to a decision win.

Brian Ebersole (46-14-1) vs Chris Lytle (30-17-5)
Ebersole steps in as a late replacement for Carlos Condit against the streaking Lytle. Chris Lytle is the definition of a gatekeeper, holding a 9-8 UFC record, losing his debut against Robbie Lawler back in 2003. Currently he is riding a four fight win streak that includes wins over Kevin Burns, Brian Foster, Matt Brown and Matt Serra. Ebersole, despite fighting for the last eleven years, makes his UFC debut riding a seven fight win streak that includes a win over former UFC welterweight champ Carlos Newton. This is Lytle's fight to lose: He's faced way stiffer competition, he's incredibly hard to finish (he's only been finished twice, and both times were due to cuts), and he's both a solid striker and grappler. I see Lytle submitting Ebersole sometime in the first two rounds, and moving in to a fight with a legit contender afterwards.

Chris Camozzi (14-3) vs Kyle Noke (18-4-1)
Two guys from the 11th season of the Ultimate Fighter meet up to see which one can move into contender status. Camozzi, who was injured on the Ultimate Fighter after winning his fight to get into the house and was unable to continue, has gone 2-0 since the show, winning decisions over James Hammortree and Dongi Yang. Noke, who was eliminated in the quarterfinals by Kris McCray, has also gone 2-0, TKOing Josh Bryant and submitting Rob Kimmons. Noke, a native of Australia, has fought a higher level of competition than Camozzi, and I feel he has more ways to win the fight. My pick is Noke by decision, though it is a close fight.

George Sotiropoulous (14-2) vs Dennis Siver (17-7)
Sotiropoulous looks to move into the top of the contenders list with another win. Sotiropoulous, a cast member on the sixth season of the Ultimate Fighter, is a very impressive 6-0 in the UFC, most recently defeating Joe Stevenson, Kurt Pellegrino, and Joe Lauzon. Siver has been a low level gatekeeper for most of his UFC tenure, but is 5-1 in his most recent stint in the Octagon. 6-4 in the UFC overall, Siver has won back to back fights over Spencer Fisher and Andre Winner after losing a decision to Ross Pearson. Sotiropoulous should have no problem with Siver, and should be able to take him down and submit him. I never really understood why this fight was made, as I feel Sotiropoulous has earned a bigger fight. Whatever the case is, whoever wins will become one of the top contenders in the division.

Michael Bisping (20-3) vs Jorge Rivera (19-7)
There's been a lot of trash talk between the two (mainly coming from Rivera, as seen here), and it's time to settle the score (sometimes I feel like a fucking promo writing these things - I need to find a better way to do intros). Bisping was the season 3 light heavyweight winner of the Ultimate Fighter, and has since gone 10-3 in the UFC, most recently winning decisions over Dan Miller and Yoshihiro Akiyama. Rivera, a cast member of the "comeback" season of the Ultimate Fighter, has been fighting in the Octagon since 2003, where he won a decision over David Louiseau (he followed that up with a loss by submission to Lee "The Birdman of Morocco" Murray*). He has compiled a 7-5 record in the UFC, and has three straight wins over Nissen Osterneck, Rob Kimmons, and Nate Quarry. Rivera has talked a lot about Bisping's lack of finishing ability, and he's right - he's never knocked someone out (as far as I can remember - he has tko wins, but none of those guys were out) and he has no submission wins in the UFC. At the same time, Bisping's only losses are to former UFC and Pride light heavyweight champs (Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, and Wanderlei Silva), while Rivera got KO'ed by the likes of Terry Martin. I see Bisping jabbing and circling his way to another decision win, until he eventually fights someone near the top of the food chain and gets the shit kicked out of him (did someone say Nate Marquadt?).

* When I first looked at his record, I missed the Louiseau fight, so i said Murray was his first fight. I didn't want to take out the Lee Murray reference though, so thats why it's there. Lee Murray, probably the most interesting story of any former UFC fighter.

BJ Penn (16-7-1) vs Jon Fitch (23-3)
They have announced that this fight will determine the next challenger for the welterweight title. BJ Penn is one of the best fighters to ever fight in the Octagon, and one of only two fighters to win a belt in two weight classes (along with Randy Couture). Penn is 12-6-1 in the UFC, and most recently knocked Matt Hughes out in 21 seconds after losing his title, and the rematch, to Frankie Edgar. Jon Fitch is a ridiculous 13-1 in the Octagon, with his only loss coming in his title shot against Georges St. Pierre. The reason Fitch hasn't gotten a second shot yet is his lack of finishes - his last seven wins have been by decision - and they haven't been exciting fights either. Penn is much different - his last six wins have been finishes over top guys (Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson, Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez and Matt Hughes) and he's almost always exciting (his second fight with Edgar not included). The question with Penn has always been motivation - he's probably the most naturally talented fighter to ever step foot in the Octagon, and also possibly one of the laziest (though some of those fat heavyweight jobbers look like they train at Burger King). I think Fitch will do what he does to every opponent (and I presume women) - lie on top of them for 15 minutes and kinda shuffle around a bit, throwing the occasional punch. My pick is Fitch by unanimous decision, though I hope BJ beats the shit out of him.

That covers the picks - overall a pretty weak card (especially considered it's a PPV card), but I'll still end up watching it. Matchmaker to come after the event (hopefully my internet wont be gay and I'll be able to watch all the fights).