Another week, another card. I'm always down for a free card, and the fact that we actually get to see some cool fights only sweetens the deal. BTW for us Canadians, the card should be on Sportsnet, but I am in no way sure of this, nor will I go check. Anyways, onto the picks.
Todd "Bulldog" Brown (15-2) vs Igor "The Duke" Pokrajic (22-8)
Brown is 0-1 in the UFC, losing a decision to Tim Boetsch last August, though he was not dominated. "The Duke" is 1-3 in the UFC, most recently dropping a decision to Stephan Bonnar last December. He had lost his first two fights to Vlad Matyushenko (by decision) and James Te Huna (by TKO) before submitting James Irvin with a rear-naked choke. Both these guys have to prove that they belong in the Octagon - a loss likely means a departure from the UFC. Pokrajic did nothing to impress me against Bonnar, but I know nothing about Brown, so I see the fight as a coin flip. I'll go with Brown, but I really don't know (or care).
Takeya Mizugaki (13-5-2) vs Reuben Duran (7-2-1)
Mizugaki makes his UFC debut after going 2-3 in the WEC's bantamweight division. Mizugaki lost his first fight in the UFC in one of the most exciting MMA fights of all time, going the distance with then champ Miguel Torres in April '09. Since then he has alternated wins and losses, beating Jeff Curan and Rani Yahya, while losing to Scott Jorgensen and, most recently, Urijah Faber. Duran makes his UFC debut on short notice, and has won his last four straight. Mizugaki is one of the top bantamweights in the division, and Duran isn't at that level. My prediction is for Mizugaki to take a clear decision win and move on to a top contender.
Dongi "The Ox" Yang (9-1) vs Rob "The Rosedale Reaper" Kimmons (23-6)
Yang is 0-1 in the UFC after dropping his debut by razor thin decision to Chris Camozzi, and is looking to rebound. Kimmons enters into his seventh UFC fight, having gone 3-3 so far, submitting washouts Rob Yundt and Joe Vepedo in the first round a decisioning Steve Steinbess. His three losses are all stoppages, coming from Dan Miller, Jorge Rivera and most recently Kyle Noke. Kimmons has failed to take a step up in competition, and I don't see "The Ox" as the guy he makes his name off of. My pick is Yang by TKO in the second, and Kimmons to start worrying about where he fights next.
Cyrille "The Snake" Diabate (16-7-1) vs Steve "The Robot" Cantwell (7-3)
Diabate, a dangerous veteran striker, has gone 1-1 in the UFC, TKOing Luiz Cane in the first round, and more recently losing by submission to Alexander Gustafsson. Cantwell, a former WEC light heavyweight champion, is probably best known for his trilogy against Brian Stann, is 1-2 in the UFC (and 3-1 in the WEC), breaking the shit out of Razak Al-Hassan's arm in his debut before dropping back to back fights against Luiz Cane and Brian Stann (in the rubber match). Cantwell has also not fought in more than a year, and I thought he had been cut. I see Diabate taking advantage of Cantwell's ring rust and scoring the TKO win the first round.
Shane Roller (9-3) vs Thiago Tavares (15-3-1)
Roller was one of the top guys in the WEC, going 6-2 with his two losses coming to the two guys that fought in the final WEC lightweight title fight (Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis). He's coming of the biggest win of his career, a first round submission of former WEC champ Jamie Varner, and also holds wins over Anthony Njokuani, Danny Castillo, Marcus Hicks, Mike Budnik and Todd Moore. Thiago Tavares is 5-3-1 in the UFC, and has gone 2-0-1 in his last three, winning decisions over Manny Gamburyan and Pat Audinwood, while going to a draw with Nik Lentz. He also holds a win over featherweight contender Michihiro Omigawa, though that fight was boring as shit. His losses come to Tyson Griffin, Matt Wiman and Kurt Pellegrino, though he was competitive in all those fights. Roller has beaten better competition than Tavares has, and has the tools to put Tavares on his back and control him. My pick is Roller winning a decision by controlling the fight standing and on the ground.
Dave Branch (8-1) vs Rousamir " Toquinho" Palhares (11-3)
Branch is 2-1 in the UFC, getting slammed into next week by Gerald Harris in his debut, then bouncing back with consecutive decision wins over Tomasz Drwal and Rich Attonito. Palhares is 4-2 in the UFC, most recently getting TKOed in the first by Nate "Choke Artist" Marquadt. He had three straight wins before that, scoring a decision win over Jeremy Horn and heelhook victories over Lucio Linhares and Tomasz Drwal. He also holds a submission win over Ivan Salaverry and a decision loss to Dan Henderson. Both these guys are solid grapplers, though I would give the edge to Palhares. I don't see either guy finishing the other, so my pick is Palhares by decision in a less than exciting fight.
Danny "Last Call" Castillo (10-3) vs Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (31-12)
Castillo makes his UFC debut after going 5-3 in the WEC, most recently defeating Dustin Poirier and Will Kerr. His losses come to the top guys in that division: Donald Cerrone, Shane Roller, and Anthony Pettis. He also holds wins over Rafael Dias, Phil Cardella and Ricardo Lamas. Stevenson, the welterweight winner of the second season of the Ultimate Fighter and a former title challenger, has gone 8-6 in the UFC, most recently dropping back to back fights to George Sotiropolous and Mac Danzig. Stevenson wins include Luke Cummo, Yves Edwards, Doko Mishima, Melvin Guillard, Kurt Pellegrino, Gleison Tibau, Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher. His losses come to Josh Neer, BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Stevenson has clearly shown that he is not a title contender, but he still has solid wrestling and top control. Castillo should hold the advantage standing, but I see Stevenson taking him down, and securing a submission in the second.
Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara (15-7) vs Chris Weidman (4-0)
Sakara, known for his aggressiveness and power, is 6-4 in the UFC, and is on a three fight win streak, scoring first round knockouts over Joe Vepedo and James Irvin and a split decision over former title challenger Thales Leites. Before that he was known for being a low level gatekeeper, beating washouts Elvis Sinosic, Victor Valimaki and James Lee, while losing to Dean Lister, Drew McFedries, Houston Alexander and Chris Leben. Weidman, who comes in on short notice to replace Rafeal Natal, who was replacing Maquiel Goncalves, has won all his fights in his two year career and is seen as one of the most promising prospects in the middleweight division. I don't think Sakara has suddenly become a much better fighter, and I don't think he will be able to stop Weidman's takedowns. I see Weidman avoiding the standup and battering Sakara on the ground on route to a first round tko or submission.
Brian Bowles (8-1) vs Damacio "The Angel of Death" Page (15-5)
Bowles, a former WEC champion, returns from a year long absence in a rematch against the very tough Damacio Page. Bowles went 5-1 in the WEC, scoring stoppage victories over Charlie Valencia, Marcos Galvao, Will Ribero, Miguel Torres (for the belt) and Page. In his last fight, he lost via doctor's stoppage to current champ Dominick Cruz. Page went 3-2 in the WEC, defeating Scott Jorgensen, Marcos Galvao (in one of the most brutal KO's of all time) and Will Campuzano. His losses come to Bowles and contender Demetrious Johnson. The first fight resulted in a first round submission for Bowles, and he can certainly do that again. The question is whether his long layoff will result in the dreaded "ring rust", or if he will go back to looking like the world beater he was before losing to Cruz. I think Bowles can still handle Page, but this time Page will last to the second round before being subbed.
CB "The Doberman" Dolloway (11-2) vs Mark "The Philippine Wrecking Machine" Munoz (9-2)
Dolloway, the runner up on the seventh season of the Ultimate Fighter, has gone 6-2 in the UFC, and has won three straight fights over Jay Silva, Goran Reljic and Joe Doerkson. He also owns wins over Mike Massienzo and Jesse "Pee Pants" Taylor (by Peruvian necktie!) while losing to Amir Sadollah and Tom Lawlor (both losses by submission). Munoz, who fought in the WEC before coming to the UFC, has gone 4-2 in the Octagon, most recently winning a decision over Aaron Simpson. His losses come to Matt Hamill (by vicious head kick KO) and Yushin Okami (by vicious dry hump), while his wins come over Nick Catone, Ryan Jensen and Kendall Grove. Both of these guys have their weaknesses: Dolloway is known for his lacking submission defence (and his stand up is pretty mediocre too), while Munoz isn't great off of his back. I think Dolloway will be able to take down Munoz, and control him on the ground. My pick is Dolloway by Fitch-esque decision, dry humping his way to victory.
Diego Sanchez (22-4) vs Martin "Hitman" Kampmann (17-4)
And now the main event. Sanchez and Kampmann have been some of the top welterweights for a while, but have both fallen when the title or title shots were up for grabs. Sanchez is coming off a solid decision win over Paulo Thiago, rebounding from back to back losses to BJ Penn (for the lightweight title) and John Hathaway (in his return to welterweight). Sanchez, who was also the middleweight winner of the first season of the Ultimate Fighter, is 11-4 in the Octagon, and holds notable wins over Kenny Florian, Karo Parysian, Nick Diaz, John Allesio, Joe Riggs, Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida, with his losses coming to Josh Kosceck, Jon Fitch and the above mentioned Penn and Hathaway. Kampmann, a former middleweight, has gone 8-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Jake Shields in a top contender fight. His wins include Paulo Thiago, Jacob Volkmann, Carlos Condit, Jorge Rivera, Drew McFedries and Thales Leites, while his losses are to Nate Marquardt, Paul Daley and Shields. Sanchez is known for his never ending gas tank and ridiculous pace, and while Kampmann is in good condition, I don't think he can keep up with his pace. I see Sanchez blasting Kampmann, taking him down and raining down punches. I don't think Sanchez can finish Kampmann, but I see him taking a clear decision win.
So those are the picks, the fights are free so you have no excuse for missing them.
No comments:
Post a Comment