Thursday, June 2, 2011

Karl's Picks - Ultimate Fighter 13 Season Finale

 Well, another shitty season of The Ultimate Fighter is in the bag, and it's time for the final card. Outside of the main event, there's not a whole lot of interesting stuff here, but it's free, so what do you expect? Also, due to the lateness of this post (some of the fights were only announced in the past few days) this won't be a full prediction post - sorry to the three people that might care.

Chuck "Cold Steel" O'Neil (8-3) vs Chris "C-Murder" Cope (4-1)
Let's get the obvious out of the way - those are some fucking awful nicknames. Two of the worst I've ever heard. As for a pick, I don't know - from what I've seen both of these guys suck. I guess I'll go with Cope because I watched one of the O'Neil fights and he just looked awful. On the bright side I doubt either of these guys will be around by this time next year.

Justin Edwards (6-0) vs Clay Harvison (6-1)

Again, I really don't know anything about either guy, but Harvison has a fight under - and this is not a joke - the KOK banner. I just can't pick a guy like that. Edwards by submission. Or TKO. Or decision. But one of those three.

Ryan "The Kid" McGillivray (11-4-1) vs Shamar Bailey (11-3)
I've heard a little bit about both guys, but not enough to really go on. McGillivray is a little bigger, so I'll pick him by submission.

Reuben Duran (7-3-1, 0-1 UFC) vs Francisco "Cisco" Rivera (5-1, 0-1 WEC)
Both these guys are coming off the losses - the difference is Duran a close decision to veteran Takeya Mizugaki, while Rivera got finished in 96 seconds by prospect Erik Koch. I would say the loss ti Mizugaki is more impressive, so I'll pick Duran by decision in a fight I really couldn't care less about.

Scott "Young Guns" Jorgenson (11-4, 7-3 WEC) vs Ken Stone (9-2, 0-1 WEC)
Finally, a fight that's even remotely interesting. Jorgenson is a top 10 bantamweight who most recently lost a decision against Dominick Cruz in his title bid. Jorgenson may not have what it takes to be champion, but this is pretty obviously a tune up fight, and one that Jorgenson should take easily, picking up a submission win in the second round.

Josh "The Fluke" Grispi (14-2, 0-1 UFC) vs George Roop (11-7-1, 1-3 UFC)
Before his loss to Dustin Poirier, Grispi was being touted as the next challenger for featherweight champ Jose Aldo, but those title aspirations took a hit with that big loss. Grispi now looks to rebound against George Roop, a former Ultimate Fighter alum that was used as a stepping stone in his last fight against Mark Hominick as well. Grispi should get back to his winning ways, and if he manages to put a few more wins together, he could be right back in contention. My pick is Grispi by submission in the first round.

Tim "Crazy" Creduer (12-3, 3-1 UFC) vs Ed "Short Fuse" Herman (21-9, 4-5 UFC)
In a lot of ways, Tim Creduer and Ed Herman are very similar fighters. Both were contestants on the Ultimate Fighter (back when it could at least produce middling talent), both are well rounded, and both are coming off nearly 20 month layoffs. Ring rust will almost certainly be a factor here, but with both guys suffering the long layoffs, this fight could go either way. I think this fight could end up being one of the best of the night, and should be very close, with Creduer just pulling a head for a decision win.

Daniel "Danny Boy" Downes (8-1, 1-1 WEC) vs Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens (19-6, 6-5 UFC)
"Danny Boy" actually looked pretty decent in his two WEC appearances - he kept it close against Chris Horodecki on short notice, and managed to beat highly regarded prospect Tiequan Zhang. He's not getting an easy first UFC fight in Stephens though, who has tons of power in his hands and is getting better at making sure the fight stays standing. Stephens will probably win, but I'm picking the upset with Downes, as I see him taking him down and edging Stephens out by close decision.

Kyle Kingsbury (10-2, 3-1 UFC) vs Fabio Maldonado (18-3, 1-0 UFC)
This fight is being billed as two of the best prospects in the light heavyweight division facing off, but that isn't really the case. Kingsbury, another former Ultimate Fighter contestant, is a decent prospect, but still hasn't really impressed me, while Maldonado's UFC win comes over James McSweeney, who is awful. My pick here is Kingsbury - he's got the striking and wrestling to take out Maldonado - but I'll wait for the winner to take on some serious competition before I start thinking of them as potential contenders.

Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson (10-2)  vs Ramsey Nijem (4-1)
The fight to determine the winner of the 13th season of the Ultimate Fighter pits a guy I have barely heard of against a guy I have never heard of. Apparently, Ferguson is a douchebag for making fun of some guy's kid (or something along those lines), but from everything I've heard he's clearly the better fighter. I'm going with Ferguson, who should use his solid striking to pick apart Nijem on route to a TKO victory.

Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (28-11, 8-5 UFC) vs Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (13-1, 5-1 WEC)
Ah, the only fight on the card with actual title implications. Clay Guida, who has faced a who's who of the lightweight division over the last four years, takes on Anthony Pettis, the last WEC lightweight champion and one of the most exciting prospects coming into the UFC. Guida is by far the more experienced one, but we already know where he falls on the totem pole - he's a high level gatekeeper with strong wrestling, outstanding cardio, and limited striking. Pettis on recently became a contender following exciting WEC wins over Shane Roller and Ben Henderson. It remains to see how Pettis will fair against UFC competition, but I'll pick him to win by taking advantage of the disparity in striking skill on route to a decision win, and a likely title shot.

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