Karl's Picks - UFC 130

 It's been a month since the last UFC (although you wouldn't know it by how late the matchmaker post went up), and I'm just about ready for some more fights. I was actually really looking forward to the original headliner of Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard 3, but with that canceled due to injury, were left with a pretty shitty main event in Rampage Jackson vs Matt Hamill. That being said, the rest of the card is pretty solid, and sometimes the weaker cards on paper end up being the most entertaining. Now, onto the fights.

Chris "Kamikaze" Cariaso (11-3, 1-0 UFC) vs Michael "Mayday" McDonald (12-1, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Cariaso: Decision win over Will Campuzano, submission loss to Renan Barao, decision win over Rafael Rebello
McDonald: Decision win over Edwin Figueroa, submission win over Clint Godfrey, KO win over Cole Escovedo
Strengths
Cariaso: Good amount of experience
McDonald: Well rounded, excellent finisher, good size for bantamweight
Weaknesses
Cariaso: Not a good finisher, skills not overly impressive
McDonald: Still very young (only 20)
Prediction
Simply put, this fight really shouldn't be close. McDonald is one of the best prospects in the division, and Cariaso doesn't look to be much more than a low level gatekeeper at best. McDonald should be able to win the fight no matter where it goes, and I see him picking a up a big first round victory, either by sub or KO.

Gleison Tibau (22-7, 8-5 UFC) vs Rafaello "Tractor" Oliveira (14-3, 1-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Tibau: Decision win over Kurt Pellegrino, decision loss to Jim Miller, TKO win over Caol Uno
Oliveira: TKO win over Ryan Bixler, decision win over Bendy Casimir, submission win over Kevin Roddy
Strengths
Tibau: Very big for a lightweight, lots of experience, very tough to finish
Oliveira: Solid wrestling, tough to finish
Weaknesses 
Tibau: Mediocre striking
Oliveira: Medicore striking
Prediction
A match between two guys who were not originally scheduled for this fight (the original fight was Bart Palaszewski vs Cody McKenzie) and who also primarily grapplers. Tibau is one of the biggest fighters at lightweight, and has fought some of the best in the division. Oliveira, who makes his return to the UFC after winning four straight in smaller promotions, has also proven to be a stern test for any fighter, though needs to show he can fight at the highest level. Tibau will be the bigger of the two, and should be able to use that to his advantage by controlling where the fight goes, and ultimately winning a decision.

Renan Barao (25-1, 2-0 WEC) vs Cole "Apache Kid" Escovedo (17-6, 6-2 WEC)
Recent Fights
Barao: Submission wins over Chris Cariaso and Anthony Leone, decision win over Sergio Rodrigues
Escovedo: Submission win over Steven Siler, submission loss to Michiro Omigawa, KO loss to Michael McDonald
Strengths
Barao: Excellent submissions
Escovedo: Lots of experience, well rounded
Weaknesses
Barao: Not much high level experience
Escovedo: Hasn't been able to take step to the next level
Prediction
Barao, owner of one of the most impressive records in MMA, is making his UFC debut against Cole Escovedo, a former WEC champ who also makes his UFC debut on short notice. The question with Barao is if his record is indicative of his skill, or if it's just heavily padded with cans. Escovedo is a solid vet that should be able to push Barao, but I think Barao is at least good enough to pass this first test, submitting Escovedo in the second round after a fairly close first round.

Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch (12-4, 3-3 UFC) vs Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove (12-8, 7-5 UFC)
Recent Fights
Boetsch: Submission loss to Phil Davis, decision win over Todd Brown, KO win over Reese Shaner
Grove: Decision loss to Demian Maia, decision win over Goran Reljic, TKO loss to Mark Munoz
Strengths
Boetsch: Good finisher, decent size
Grove: Solid submissions, long reach
Weaknesses
Boetsch: Not overtly skilled
Grove: One of the worst chins in the UFC
Prediction
This fight is very important for both fighters. Boetsch, who is making his middleweigth debut, will likely be cut unless he can pull out a win, and much of the same can be said about Grove, the Ultimate Fighter season 3 middleweight winner. Both haven't been able to make that step up in competition, but I believe it's Boetsch that will pull out a victory. He has shown some decent striking, and Grove is known for his weak chin. I see Boetsch wading in and knocking Grove out, both in the fight and out of the UFC.

Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (8-1, 1-0 UFC) vs Miguel Torres (39-3, 1-0 UFC)
Recent Fights
Johnson: Decision win over Kid Yamamoto, submission win over Damacio Page, decision win over Nick Pace
Torres: Decision win over Antonio Banuelos, submission win over Charlie Valencia, submission loss to Joe Benavidez
Strengths
Johnson: Wrestling is very strong, good in scrambles
Torres: Strong submissions and striking
Weaknesses
Johnson: Pretty small for division, striking is mediocre
Torres: Wrestling isn't great
Prediction
Torres, the former WEC bantamweight champion, has not looked the same since losing his title to Brian Bowles. He hasn't had the same killer instinct he showed in wins over Yoshihiro Madea and Manny Tapia, switching to a much more conservative style. He also won't be getting an easy fight in Johnson, who picked up the biggest win of his career by outworking Kid Yamamoto in his UFC debut. Johnson has the wrestling skills to take Torres down, and I think he can fluster him with top control on route to a decision win.

Thiago "Pitbull" Alves (18-7, 10-4 UFC) vs Rick "Horror" Story (12-3, 5-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
Alves: Decision win over John Howard, decision losses to Jon Fitch and Georges St. Pierre
Story: Decision win over Johnny Hendricks, TKO win over Dustin Hazlett, decision win over Nick Ospiczak
Strengths
Alves: Very strong muay thai, strong takedown defense
Story: Solid wrestling, well rounded
Weaknesses
Alves: Ground game needs work
Story: Hasn't faced the same level of competition
Prediction
This fight will go one of two ways: Story pulls out an upset and proves that he is one of the top contenders in the division, or Alves adds another victim to his list on route to another title shot. Alves has proven himself to be one of the top guys, with only heavy wrestling styles being able to stop him. Story doesn't have the wrestling necessary to beat Alves, and he'll be feeling it for days after, as Alves tees of on Story on route to a third round stoppage.

Jorge Santiago (23-8, 1-2 UFC) vs Brian "All American" Stann (10-3, 4-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Santiago: TKO win over Kazuo Misaki, decision win over Mamed Khalidov, TKO loss to Mamed Khalidov
Stann: TKO win over Chris Leben, submission win over Mike Massenzio, decision loss to Phil Davis
Strengths
Santiago: Strong grappling, great finisher
Stann: KO power, improving overall game
Weaknesses
Santiago: Weak chin
Stann: Wrestling needs work
Prediction
Santiago returns to the UFC for the first time in five years, during which he beat some of the best fighters in the regional circuit, going 11-1 with ten finishes. Stann has won two straight since dropping to middleweight, including a very impressive performance against Chris Leben. Santiago's biggest weakness has always been his chin, and Stann has more than enough power to test it. That being said, I think Santiago will be smart enough to take Stann down, and should hold a decisive advantage once the fight hits the ground. I see Santiago taking Stann down and submitting him, all within the first round.

Travis "Hapa" Browne (10-0-1, 1-0-1 UFC) vs Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve (21-4, 5-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Browne: Draw with Cheick Kongo, TKO wins over James McSweeney and Aaron Brink
Struve: TKO wins over Sean McCorkle and Christian Morecraft, TKO loss to Roy Nelson
Strengths
Browne: KO power, very tall
Struve: Very long reach, solid striking and submissions
Weaknesses
Browne: Unproven
Struve: Wrestling needs work, not very good defensively
Prediction
A fight between Browne and Struve gives a chance to see which one of the two has what it takes to be a contender at heavyweight - Browne did better than expected in going to a draw with Cheick Kongo, and Struve has back to back stoppage wins over guys that likely aren't UFC quality. Struve has shown a lot of potential, but needs to start showing better defensive skills if he wants to do better. This fight is hard to call, because I really don't know much about Browne, but I think Struve will be able to use his slightly longer reach to his advantage, tagging Browne on the feet on route to another TKO win.

Frank Mir (14-5, 12-5 UFC) vs Roy "Big Country" Nelson (15-5, 2-1 UFC)
Recent Fights
Mir: KO win over Mirko Cro Cop, KO loss to Shane Carwin, submission win over Cheick Kongo
Nelson: Decision loss to Junior Dos Santos, TKO wins over Stefan Struve and Brendan Schaub
Strengths
Mir: Strong ju jitsu, KO power
Nelson: Well rounded, good conditioning
Weaknesses
Mir: Conditioning has always been an issue
Nelson: Not the very best in any particular area
Prediction
Personally, this is the fight I'm looking forward to the most. Mir, a former UFC heavyweight champion, who rebounded from his loss to Carwin with a highlight reel KO of Cro Cop (though the rest of the fight sucked), will look to continue his way back to the title. Nelson, the Ultimate Fighter season 10 winner, quickly moved to the top of the division after scoring back to back first round KO wins, and then losing a fight to Dos Santos that, while not close, showed a lot of toughness. I think this fight will be very close, but I see Nelson surviving an early attack to score a second round TKO victory, and move in to a much bigger fight against the top guys in the division.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (31-8, 6-2 UFC) vs Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (10-2, 9-2 UFC)
Recent Fights
Jackson: Decision win over Lyoto Machida, decision loss to Rashad Evans, decision win over Keith Jardine
Hamill: Decision wins over Tito Ortiz and Keith Jardine, DQ "win" over Jon Jones
Strengths
Jackson: Strong boxing, solid wrestling, tons of experience
Hamill: Strong wrestling, improving striking
Weaknesses
Jackson: Ground game is non existent, striking defense needs work, questionable work ethic
Hamill: Striking skills still need work, not good off his back
Prediction
Well, this is underwhelming. One of the least enticing main events of all time, a match up between Jackson and Hamill really doesn't make any sense. Jackson, a former light heavyweight champ, should be fighting someone with a much larger profile, but due to previous booking and injuries, he's left to fight Hamill, a Ultimate Fighter contestant who hasn't proven at all that he can fight at the very top of the division. Don't get me wrong, Hamill is a decent fighter, but he's not a serious contender (at least at this point). The main question going into this fight is Jackson's desire to fight, which has been called in question for years now, as he openly admits he does not like training and would rather continue acting. If Jackson comes in under prepared, Hamill could capitalize and pull off the upset, but I see Jackson doing just enough to walk away with the decision win.