I made 'em for the Fight Night card, now I'll make the picks for UFC 126, headlined by the Anderson Silva Vitor Belfort middleweight title fight. It should be a good card, lots of really interesting fights, so lets get down to the picks.
Mike Pierce (11-3) vs Kenny Robertson (10-0)
A welterweight fight where the winner takes a big step up the food chain. Pierce is 3-1 in the UFC, and riding a two fight win streak over Julio Paulino and Amilcar Alves following a decision loss to Jon Fitch. Robertson is making his UFC debut, and most recently submitted TUF vet John Kolosci in Bellator. Robertson has a pretty solid resume, holding wins over guys like LeVon Maynard and Herbet Goodman, but Pierce is a tough test for anyone. Pierce really hasn't shown me anything special yet though, so I'm picking Robertson to make his name by submitting Pierce in the second.
Kyle Kingsbury (9-2) vs Ricardo Romero (11-1)
These two light heavyweight prospects meet up to see how moves up the ladder. Kingsbury is an alumni of the eight season of the Ultimate Fighter, and has gone 2-1 in the UFC, losing to Tom Lawlor at the TUF 8 Finale, and then winning two straight decisions over Razak Al-Hassan and Jared Hamman. Ricardo Romero is 1-0 in the UFC, submitting Seth Petruzelli with an armbar last July. Romero looks to be a solid prospect - he holds a solid win over Petruzelli, and his only loss is by DQ. Kingsbury hasn't impressed me at all, so I'm picking Romero to tap Kingsbury and start to get pushed as a future contender.
Demetrious Johnson (7-1) vs Kid Yamamoto (18-3)
Yamamoto is finally coming over to the UFC after being one of Japan's biggest stars for years. Yamamoto holds wins over Rani Yahya, Bibiano Fernandes, Genki Sudo, Caol Uno and Jeff Curran, but also recent losses to Joe Warren and Masanori Kanehara. Johnson makes his UFC debut after going 2-1 in the WEC, losing a decision to Brad Pickett and then beating Nick Pace and Damacio Page. Johnson is a great fighter, and Yamamoto hasn't looked great recently. I see this fight going similarly to how Takanori Gomi's debut went - awful. I think Johnson will easily control Yamamoto on route to a decision win and making a big move up the bantamweight ladder.
Gabe Ruediger (17-6) vs Paul Taylor (10-6-1)
Here's a fight between two guys that may be fighting for their spots on the roster. Ruediger is 0-2 in the UFC, losing by KO to Melvin Guillard way back in '06 and a much more recent loss to Joe Lauzon by armbar. Paul Taylor is one of the more exciting fighters in the lightweight division, though not one of the most talented, going 3-5 in the UFC, beating Edilberto de Oliveira, Jess Liaudin and Peter Sobotta while losing to Marcus Davis, Paul Kelly, Chris Lytle, and his most recent two fights to John Hathaway and Sam Stout. Both these guys have fought a ton of tough competition, but both of them are also one fight away from being cut. I'm picking Paul Taylor by decision, in a fight that proves to be fairly exciting.
Chad Mendes (9-0) vs Michihiro Omigawa (12-8-1)
This is a huge fight in the featherweight division - whoever wins this fight instantly becomes one of the top contenders in the division. Mendes is making his UFC debut after winning all four of his WEC wins, beating Anthony Morrison by guillotine and Eric Koch, Cyb Swanson and Javier Vazquez by decision. Omigawa is returning to the UFC, going 0-2 as a lightweight at the end of 2007, but has since become a top featherweight, winning eight of his last nine fights, including wins over LC Davis, Nam Phan, Marlon Sandro, Hatsu Hioki, Hiroyuki Takaya, Micah Miller and Cole Escovedo. Mendes is a powerful wrestler, and I think he has the ability to take Omigawa down and control him. My pick is Mendes by boring unanimous decision, and a move up to a top contender fight.
Paul Kelly (11-3) vs Donald Cerrone (13-3)
Donald Cerrone, one of the WEC's most popular lightweights, makes his UFC debut against longtime UK fighter Paul Kelly. Cerrone was 6-3 with one no contest in the WEC, losing only in title fights against Jamie Varner and Ben Henderson (twice). He holds wins over Danny Castillo, Rob McCullough, James Krause, Ed Ratcliff, Jamie Varner, and Chris Horodecki. Paul Kelly has been one of the mainstays of the UK shows, and is 5-3 in the UFC, besting Paul Taylor, Troy Mandaloniz, Roli Delgado, Matt Veach and most recently TJ O'Brien, while losing to Marcus Davis, Dennis Siver and Jacob Volkmann. Cerrone has fought tougher competition and has more impressive wins, and I'm picking him to make his mark by beating Kelly by TKO in the first.
Miguel Torres (38-3) vs Antonio Banuelos (18-6)
Torres, one of the WEC's biggest stars and former bantamweight champion, is making his UFC debut against another long time WEC fighter. Torres is 6-2 in the WEC, holding wins over Jeff Bedard, Chase Beebe, Yoshiro Maeda, Manny Tapia and Takeya Mizugaki. He most recentlt submitted Charlie Valencia after losing two straight to Brian Bowles and Joe Benavidez. Banuelos was 9-5 in the WEC, with notable wins over Cole Escovedo, Kenji Osawa and Scott Jorgensen. He most recently defeated Chad George by decision after losing in a rematch to recent title challenger Scott Jorgenson. Torres is one of the best bantamweights out there, and Banuelos is the definition of a gatekeeper - he has lost almost everytime he has taken a serious step up in competition. I see Torres easily handling Banuelos, submitting him in the first round, and moving on to a top contender fight.
Carlos Rocha (9-0) vs Jake Ellenberger (22-5)
Rocha gets a very stiff test in just his second UFC fight with the underrated Ellenberger. Rocha won his only UFC fight so far, tapping TUF 11 finalist Kris McCray with a kneebar in the first round last November. Ellenberger is 2-1 in the UFC, with back to back TKO wins over John Howard and Mike Pyle after losing his UFC debut in a very close split decision to Carlos Condit. Ellenberger is a beast, and I don't think Rocha has the experience to deal with a guy like Ellenberger at this point. I see Ellenberger winning by TKO in the second and becoming one of the top contenders in the welterweight division.
Jon Jones (11-1) vs Ryan Bader (12-0)
This is a huge fight between two of the best up and coming light heavyweights in the world. Jon Jones is 5-1 in the UFC, with his only "loss" to Matt Hamill by DQ for fucking up his face too much. He has most recently TKO'ed Brandon Vera and Vlad Matyushenko in the headliners of the two UFC on Versus cards, and also holds wins over Andre Gusmao, Stephan Bonnar and Jake O'Brien. Ryan Bader is the light heavyweight winner of the eight season of The Ultimate Fighter, and has gone 5-0 in the UFC, most recently knocking out Keith Jardine and winning a decision over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Both these guys are touted as future light heavyweight champions, and this fight should catapult one of them into top contender status. Jon Jones really should be undefeated, as no one takes his loss to Hamill as an actual loss, and nobody has been able to stop Bader's mix of wrestling and KO power. This fight could go either way, with either Bader taking Jones down and ground and pounding him or Jones elbowing Bader's face into oblivion. Jones has looked more impressive to me, even though Bader has arguably bigger wins, and I'm going to pick him by unanimous decision.
Rich Franklin (28-5) vs Forrest Griffin (17-6)
A light heavyweight battle between two of the UFC's biggest stars is always a fight to look forward too, and this fight will push one of the fighters into the top of the contenders list. Rick Franklin is the former UFC Middleweight champion, and has gone 13-4 in the UFC, and holds wins over Wanderlai Silva, Matt Hamill, Travis Lutter, Yushin Okami, Jason Macdonald, David Louiseau, Nate Quarry, Jorge Rivera, and Evan Tanner twice. He most recently KO 'ed Chuck Liddell in the first round after being knocked out himself by Vitor Belfort. Forrest Griffin was the light heavyweight winner of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, and has gone 8-4 in the UFC, holding wins over Light Heavyweight champ Shogun Rua, former champ Rampage Jackson, and two wins over Stephan Bonnar. He most recently beat Tito Ortiz in a rematch after losing back to back fights by KO to Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva. Griffin is a gigantic light heavyweight, and Franklin is a former middlweight, so there should be a noticible size difference. Griffin is known for having a glass chin though, and Franklin does have KO power in his hands. This would be Franklin's biggest win yet, but I don't think it will happen, as I see Griffin controlling Franklin with takedowns and ground and pound on route to a unanimous decision win.
Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva (27-4) vs Vitor Belfort (19-8)
This fight is being touted as the two best strikers in the middleweight division facing off, and represnts a chance for Silva to impress fans he may have lost with his odd recent performances. Silva is a ridiculous is a ridiculous 12-0 in the UFC, with 10 stoppages in those 12 fights. He's knocked out Chris Leben, Rich Franklin (twice), Nate Marquadt, James Irvin, and Forrest Griffin, and submitted Travis Lutter, Dan Henderson, and most recently Chael Sonnen. Silva's performances have been strange recently though, with Silva looking like he is bored with the competition, letting fights with Thales Leites and Demian Maia go to decision despite the fact that they were severly outclassed. Belfort is 3-2 in the modern UFC (I really don't think he should be judged on fights that happened before weight classes), most recently knocking Rich Franklin out in a catchweight bout. He also split fights with Randy Couture (with his win coming from accidental injury just moments into the fight) to go along with a TKO over Marvin Eastman and a split decision loss to Tito Ortiz. Belfort has looked more impressive lately, but he has a lot of reasons to worry. For one, Belfort hasn't fought in more than 15 months due to a string of injuries. Secondly, Belfort has never fought as a middleweight in the UFC. Third, Belfort has a rocky history of fights - he's long been considered one of the most talented fighters out there, but he hasn't been able to reach his potential. I see Silva finally getting an opponent that will stand with him, and picking him apart much like he did to Forrest Griffin in 2009 (just two events before Belfort's last fight BTW). My pick is Silva finishing Belfort late in the first, showing why he is one of the top pound for pound fighters and why Belfort probably didn't deserve his title shot in the first place.
Those are the picks, should be a good night of fights. I'll post an aftermath after I watch all the fights to tell you who should fight who next, cause my opinion is the be-all end-all of opinions.
I picked Mike Pierce. He beat up Fitch during the last round of their fight and has looked pretty decent ever since. I'm also picking Kid. Johnson is good in scrambles but Kid is a very good wrestler and can probably keep it standing. Kid is also fighting someone who should also be at 125, so he won't be undersized for once. I picked the other fights pretty much the same as you, I just hope Forrest Griffin loses because he's a big bag o' douche.
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