Most people know me know that I'm a pretty big sports fan, in particular with MMA and the UFC. I have decided to regularly post my predictions for UFC events, and may expand this into other sports later (NHL Playoffs perhaps?). Anyways, these are my picks for the fights this Saturday
Chris Cariaso (10-2) vs Will Campuzano (8-3)
I don't know a whole lot about either of these guys. Cariaso is making his UFC debut after splitting his two fights in the WEC, where he decisioned Rafael Rebello and was choked out by Renan do Nascimento Mota Pegado (This guy needs to shorten his fuckin name). Campuzano got subbed with some sort of crazy leg-choke-thing by Nick Pace in his UFC debut, and went 1-2 in the WEC before that. I remember seeing Campuzano get tooled by Eddie Wineland back in the WEC, and he was subbed in the first in his last outing. I really don't know enough about either guys to make an opinion, but I'm gonna go with Cariaso via decision.
I wrote way more than I needed to on that last one
Amilcar Alves (11-2) vs Charlie Brenneman (12-2)
We have two guys at the bottom of the welterweight ladder duking it out to see who gets to stay in the UFC. Charlie Brenneman is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off a TKO loss to Johnny Hendricks. Amilcar Alves is 0-1 in the UFC after losing via armbar to Mike Peirce. Brenneman has faced a slightly higher level in competition than Alves, and I see him winning a unanimous decision
Willamy Friere (18-3) vs Waylon Lowe (9-3)
Friere is a lightweight prospect coming in to the UFC with a small amount of fanfare. He is currently riding an 11 fight win streak in which eight of his opponents were finished. Lowe somehow seems to have a win in the UFC over Steve Lopez (who?) after getting kneed hard by Melvin Guillard in his first UFC fight. This should be an easy win for Friere, and a nice paycheck for Lowe before he goes back to the regional circuit
Mike Thomas Brown (24-7) vs Rani Yahya (15-6)
Why they aren't showing this fight is well beyond me. Both these guys are veterans of the sport. Brown is the former WEC featherweight champ who holds wins over Urijah Faber (twice), Leonard Garcia, Jeff Curran, Yves Edwards, and Mark Hominick, though he has lost three of his last five fights (though to tough competiton - Jose Aldo, Manny Gamburyan and most recently Diego Nunes). Rani Yahya is moving back up to featherweight from bantamweight after dropping two straight fights. I think Brown will come out hungry for the win, and will be smart enough to stay away from Yahya's ground game, outstriking him until he is able to knock him out.
Mike Guymon (12-4-1) vs DeMarques Johnson (11-8)
Here are two low level welterweights looking to put on an entertaining scrap. Guymon is 1-2 in the UFC with two submission losses to prospects Rory Macdonald and Daniel Roberts around a decision win over Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Johnson, the runner up from the horrible UK vs US season of the Ultimate Fighter is 2-2 in the UFC, holding wins over Edgar Garcia and Brad Blackburn while losing to James Wilks and Matt Riddle. Straight up, I will never pick DeMarques Johnson in a UFC-caliber fight. Every fight I've seen of his so far involved him getting his ass beat, and then either pulling out a stoppage or getting stopped himself. Guymon hasn't looked great, but his win over Yoshida shows me he has some talent. I'm picking Guymon by decision, though I definitely think that he can stop Johnson either with strikes or submission.
Yves Edwards (39-16-1) vs Cody McKenzie (12-0)
Edwards is a real veteran of the sport, with 56 fights under his name and notable wins over Derrick Noble, Hermes Franca, Josh Thomson and James Warfield. He is 1-0 in his current UFC stint and 6-4 overall. McKenzie was a cast member on the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter and is 12-0 with 10 wins via his trademark guillotine choke. I'll sum this fight up pretty fast - either McKenzie will win by Guillotine choke in less than two minutes, or Edwards will win. I think Edwards is smart enough to avoid the guillotine and TKO McKenzie in the second.
Cole Miller (17-4) vs Matt Wiman (12-5)
Miller and Wiman are both alumni of the fifth season of the Ultimate Fighter, and neither have moved past the stage of gatekeeper yet. Miller has a great ground game and has shown improved stand up in his recent fights. He is 6-2 in the UFC and has back to back submission wins over Joe Lauzon and Ross Pearson. Matt Wiman is 6-3 in the UFC, and has back to back wins over Shane Nelson and a sketchy submission win over Mac Danzig. Miller has faced the tougher competition and a win here could push him into a much bigger fight in the lightweight title picture. I'm picking Miller to submit Wiman in the second round, and move into contender status.
Mark Hominick (19-8) vs George Roop (11-6-1)
Hominick is one of the top guys coming into the UFC from the WEC, and knocked out three straight wins in the WEC before it folded in, beating Leonard Garcia, Yvas Jabouin and Brian Caraway. George Roop is a Ultimate Fighter alumni that is coming off a knockout victory over the Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung. Dana White has already stated that if Mark Hominick beats Roop on Saturday that he will get the next shot at Jose Aldo in Toronto. Both these guys are known for being very exciting, but I don't think Roop offers anything that Hominick can't get past. I see Hominick finishing Roop in the first two rounds, and securing his title shot against Aldo.
Pat Barry (5-2) vs Joey Beltran (12-4)
Barry is one of the best kickboxers in the heavyweight division, though he still has tons of questions regarding his ground game and his conditioning. Barry is 2-2 in the UFC and his coming off a high profile submission lost to Mirko Cro Cop. Joey Beltran is one of the bottom teir heavyweights in the division, and has gone 2-1 so far in the UFC, most recently losing to Matt Mitrione by decision. If Beltran can take Barry down and control him, he could very well win this fight. If Barry can keep it standing, even for a short time, he has a good chance of turning Beltran's lights off. I'm picking Barry by KO/TKO in the first, hitting Beltran as he tries to close in for a takedown.
Matt Mitrione (3-0) vs Tim Hague (12-4)
Mitrione was a cast member on the awful heavyweight season of the Ultimate Fighter, and seems to be getting a fairly considerable push from the UFC. He is 3-0, with all of his fights in the UFC, and holds KO wins over ex-NFLer (and fellow TUF alum) Marcus Jones and internet sensation Kimbo Slice, and most recently bested Joey Beltran by unanimous decision. Tim Hague is 1-3 in the UFC, with a submission win over Pat Barry, but losses to Joey Beltran, Chris Tuchscherer, and most notably the official quickest KO loss in UFC history (a seven second KO loss to Todd Duffee). I really don't understand why the UFC keeps pushing Mitrione, as he hasn't shown that much skill, but he should be able to defeat Tim Hague. I'm picking Mitrione to show a little bit more development on route to a unanimous decision win.
Melvin Guillard (26-8-2) vs Evan Dunham (11-1)
Guillard has been fighting in the UFC for almost five years now, compiling a 8-4 record in the UFC, and is currently on a three fight win streak over Ronnys Torres, Waylon Lowe and Jeremy Stephens. He also holds UFC wins over Marcus Davis, Dennis Siver and Glieson Tibau. Dunham is one of the top prospects in the lightweight division, holding wins over Marcus Auerilio, Efrain Escudero and Tyson Griffin, and most recently a very questionable decision loss to former champ Sean Sherk. Guillard isn't the same explosive (and reckless) fighter that he used to be, and his move to Team Jackson has made him a smarter fighter, though I feel a less interesting one. I thought Dunham beat Sherk, and I can't see Guillard being a tougher test than him. Dunham should be able to win this fight, either by dominant decision or a late submission.
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